Aleksandr Ustinov, the Director for Development of RD Management, commented on the current situation in the real estate market for the portal ComEstate.ru. The expert gave also a forecast of developments until the end of the year.
According to Aleksandr Ustinov, a traditional market monitoring is expected in the autumn. It is not certain that it will result in actual transactions, but there will be some interest, for instance, on the part of office real estate tenants. This is due the fact that, within the framework of budgeting for the next year, many companies are looking for ways to optimize and reduce their costs.
It is worth mentioning that the warehouse segment has already switched to rubles, therefore in this market the increase in the dollar exchange rate will impact mainly the increase in inflation, that may entail a larger percentage of indexation under the concluded contracts.
The market of commercial and office real estate is still using different currencies. Switching to rubles and fixing the exchange rate are mainly inherent to B-class business centers.
It should be noted that, if the parties have agreed to fix the exchange rate, such agreements were applicable to one year, and during this calendar year an increase in the exchange rate will not lead to a collapse of the market.
It should be also noted that this will not affect the segment of premium real estate, given that its tenants are mainly international companies financed in foreign currencies.
It is rather difficult to give any forecast until the end of the ear in respect of vacation level and rental rates in the current situation. Developers have frozen some projects “on paper”, but they completed or are near completion of projects “in process”, extending the deadlines. In the market of office real estate, the most companies were budgeted according to pessimistic scenario, so that I see no fundamental changes until the end of the year. What will happen in the next year will be clear following the results of the third quarter.
As for the commercial real estate, this market responds most quickly to the changes in macro-economic parameters, and if the latter have got worse in the third and the fourth quarters, the deadlines of commissioning new facilities may be reviewed, and the level of vacancies in existing facilities may grow.
While maintaining the current macro-economic climate, the vacation in high-quality commercial real estate in Moscow shall not exceed 13-14 pct. It is obvious that until the end of the year we can predict new sales transactions, and not only in respect of individual buildings, but also in respect of non-core assets portfolios.
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